Author: Rehan Ashraf Khan – Bangladesh – PROMPT! Cohort #1
Abstract: This paper looks at how political stability affects the Human Development Index (HDI) in Bangladesh. It uses case studies to compare governance, corruption and clashes between different political parties can affect the quality of life for people. Introduction Political stability is one of the most important factors that influences a country’s development. The Human Development Index (HDI) measures well-being through indicators such as life expectancy, education, standard of living, income, etc. The political state of Bangladesh affects the lives of millions of Bangladeshi because it is a very densely populated country. When the government is stable, policies can be planned and executed properly. Improvements in HDI require continuous progress in public health, education, economic performance and government policies regarding jobs; all of which depend on the stability of a government, consistent policies and safe laws. Political stability is both a direct and indirect contributor to HDI. This paper focuses on how political stability or the lack of it can affect HDI, with its main focus being on Bangladesh. Bangladesh is a country that has seen notable growth after its independence in 1971 but also has faced recurring episodes of political tension. To better understand the potential consequences of political instability on HDI, it is beneficial to examine cases such as Afghanistan and Myanmar where abrupt regime changes took place. Theoretical framework: How political stability influences human development Political stability affects the HDI through five main channels: Public service delivery: Stable governments are better able to plan and finance education, healthcare, law enforcement and ecological or social protection programs. Instability and disruption undermines the government’s ability to exercise authority, manage essential services such as schools, clinics, etc effectively. Economic growth: Political stability attracts private investment and maintains supply chains, jobs and also tax revenues. Instability reduces business confidence, private investment and increases unemployment; this depresses GDP per capita. Foreign aid and external finance: Sudden regime changes or political instability makes countries less attractive to investors and donors. This can slow down development projects, reduce jobs and limit funding for schools, hospitals and social programs. This can affect human development. Gender equality and social inclusion: Political takeovers that roll back women’s rights or civil liberties; eg: restricting education and participation in the workforce for women — can negatively affect HDI components tied to education and the economy, this also increases inequality. Rule of law and long term planning: Stable institutions and governments can enforce laws, fight corruption, and support long term planning which are beneficial for the country. Without stability, corruption and short term governments can damage the rate of development. Bangladesh: HDI and Governance Bangladesh has made notable progress in human development since its independence in 1971. Its HDI has increased from 0.395 in 1991 to 0.477 in 2000 and to 0.685 in 2023. Bangladesh has shown notable steady development in its HDI and GDP per capita along with spending power. These statistics show improvements in life expectancy, literacy, income and successful health and education programs but this progress has unfolded with a fragile political environment. Periods of stability such as the democratic transition of the 1990s and the growth-oriented governance of 2009-2018 allowed for stronger policy implementation. However, episodes of political unrest, electoral boycotts, and widespread corruption in law enforcements and the cabinet weakened governance, slowing reforms and delaying project deadlines along with service delivery. The Bangladeshi case portrays that while progress is possible under difficult circumstances, continuous improvements in HDI are closely tied to political stability and institutional strength. Effects of instability on Development Political instability affects developments in multiple ways. In Bangladesh, strikes, protests and abrupt policy changes have repeatedly disrupted economic activity and the delivery of social services. An example of how it affects social services can be seen in the education sector. The education sector clearly illustrates this pattern because political unrest and civil unrest has frequently forced both public and schools to temporarily close; this reduced attendance and exam participation. At the same time, instability negatively affects healthcare delivery, investor confidence, reducing income growth and slowing job creation. Together, these factors exert downward pressure on HDI indicators or factors. Comparative Case Studies The relation between political instability and human development becomes clearer when Bangladesh’s experience is compared to other countries where political instability has directly harmed HDI outcomes. Afghanistan (2021 Taliban takeover): The return of Taliban rule reversed almost two decades of progress. Education programs for females were dismantled, health services were disrupted, foreign aid was sharply reduced and foreign investments made into Afghanistan’s economy were put at risk. Education and healthcare systems weakened and poverty rates rose sharply, reversing gains in HDI. The HDI fell from 0.5 in 2020 to 0.49 to 2022; this was also followed by a fall in GDP per capita and spending power. Myanmar (2021 coup): The military coup undermined economic growth and social service delivery. Widespread conflict and international sanctions disrupted trade, investment and aid. The coup resulted in Myanmar entering a new chapter with a military junta, known as the Tatmadaw, ruling it. The Tatmadaw has been in civil war with resistance forces since. This resulted in education and healthcare systems weakening, poverty rates rising and reversing earlier gains in HDI. Though the HDI has remained stable according to UNDP reports, data presented in neighbouring countries and in Myanmar regarding its political situation would say otherwise. The experience of Afghanistan and Myanmar provides clear examples of how sudden political takeovers can disrupt social and economic systems and undermine years of progress in human development. Data and Evidence Bangladesh has steadily improved its HDI but political stability remains fragile. World Bank governance data places Bangladesh in the lower percentile for political stability, showing risk of unrest. Periods of unrest such as the 2013-2014 election crisis was caused when the party in control of Bangladesh’s government abolished the caretaker government which the opposing party was against, arguing that a fair election would be impossible; this led to nationwide protests, blockades and violence. An example of unrest that has not yet caused a measurable decline in HDI but shows the risk is the event referred to as, “July uprising”. In 2024, student protests against government job quota policies paralyzed major cities for weeks, leading to educational institutions being temporarily shut down, disruption in transportation and violent clashes between students and police forces. The protests resulted in students and civilians getting injured and dying and also political leaders, businessmen affiliated with the ruling government being imprisoned and put on trial. The country spiraled out of control when the prime minister Sheikh Hasina reportedly fled the country. This resulted in civilians looting her house and several other peoples’ houses, even people not affiliated with the government. Most investigations regarding these lootings have been proved futile due to the large scale. Eventually the students’ demands were adhered to and the supreme court ruled that 93% of government jobs should be filed on merit and 7% for certain groups. Comparative cases show sharper declines: Afghanistan’s 2021 Taliban takeover halted girls’ education and cut aid, reversing development in HDI factors, while Myanmar’s 2021 coup caused an economic collapse, poverty spike, weakened health and educational services and forced displacement. Policy Options To sustain HDI progress. Bangladesh must strengthen governance. Policy priorities include: Institutional reforms – Enhancing independence of the judiciary system and implementing a neutral caretaker government. Anti-corruption measures – Improving transparency in public spending to ensure development programs reach intended beneficiaries and the tax department or National Board of Revenue in Bangladesh should be under the neutral caretaker governance to avoid members of parliament from committing tax fraud and falling to corruption. Social safety nets – Strengthen welfare programs so health, education, and basic needs continue even during political unrest. Global Partnerships – Build trust with investors and donors by ensuring transparent and stable governance. Conclusion Bangladesh’s human development progress shows how closely HDI is linked to political stability. Periods of steady governance have allowed economic growth whereas instability, corruption and protests have disrupted social services and slowed reforms and development. The 2024 July uprising demonstrates how unresolved political tensions can have a negative effect on schools, jobs and on civilians’ daily lives. Comparisons with Afghanistan and Myanmar highlight how severely political instability can reverse human development gain. While Bangladesh has avoided sharp declines, events like the 2024 July uprising show that instability can slow progress in multiple sectors, disrupt education and services, and create risks for HDI growth. Sustaining human development in Bangladesh requires strong institutions, anti corruption measures and political stability to maintain and build HDI. References and citations: HDI data: Political stability and governance: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators/Series/CC.EST https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Bangladesh/wb_political_stability/ 2024 student protest (July uprising): Comparative case studies: Policy Recommendations:
